The 2010/13 paediatric cardiac surgical procedures are defined as any cardiac or intrathoracic great vessel procedure carried out in patients under the age of 16 years. This all centre aggregated analysis was conducted using PRAiS software (version 2.2). PRAiS estimates the risk of death within 30 days of a primary surgical procedure, based on specific procedure, age, weight and the patient recorded diagnoses and comorbidities. The PRAiS model can only be applied to paediatric cardiac surgery and has not been validated for use in an adult congenital population. To date, there are no risk adjustment models available for these patients. Therefore similar overall aggregate figures for adults with congenital heart disease are not possible. The figure below shows the number of surgical episodes, 30 day survival rates and predicted and actual survival ratios. The results show that all of the hospitals were above the alert limit of 99.5% for 30 day survival rates. Leeds General Infirmary (LGI) was below the 98% warning limit which means that survival rates at this center were lower than predicted.
LGI has undertaken an internal investigation and has also had a comprehensive external review covering this time period. A statement from LGI is available via the NCHDA front page.
NICOR has since validated 2013/14 data and undertaken a centre aggregated analysis for 2011-2014, 2012-2014 and 2009-2014 (5 year trend). These results show that LGI has survival rates within the expected limits in all these other instances. This additional analysis is available in the a supplementary NICOR report: NICOR report on Leeds General Infirmary data analysis in the National Congenital Heart Disease Audit September 2014.
Code | Unit | Surgical
Episodes | Actual Survival | Predicted Survival | Actual/
predicted |
RVB | Belfast, Royal Victoria Hospital | 232 | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.999 |
HSC | London, Harley Street Clinic | 483 | 97.9% | 97.2% | 1.007 |
GRL | Leicester, Glenfield Hospital | 570 | 97.9% | 97.4% | 1.005 |
FRE | Newcastle, Freeman Hospital | 704 | 97.7% | 97.1% | 1.006 |
OLS | Dublin, Our Lady's Children's Hospital | 738 | 97.0% | 97.8% | 0.992 |
RHS | Glasgow, Royal Hospital for Sick Children | 817 | 96.8% | 97.6% | 0.992 |
BRC | Bristol Royal Hospital For Children | 886 | 97.6% | 98.1% | 0.995 |
SGH | Southampton, Wessex Cardiothoracic Centre | 914 | 98.5% | 97.7% | 1.008 |
LGI | Leeds General Infirmary | 919 | 96.5% | 97.8% | 0.987 |
NHB | London, Royal Brompton Hospital | 1117 | 98.4% | 98.0% | 1.004 |
GUY | London, Evelina Children's Hospital | 1165 | 96.4% | 97.2% | 0.992 |
ACH | Liverpool, Alder Hey Hospital | 1195 | 96.7% | 97.3% | 0.993 |
BCH | Birmingham Children’s Hospital | 1467 | 97.0% | 96.6% | 1.004 |
GOS | London, Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children | 1828 | 98.2% | 97.8% | 1.005 |